Rose: Collapse of Post-War Order Is Worst-Case Scenario

The video discusses the potential impact of the US retrenching from its foreign policy commitments, particularly in Asia, and whether China can fill the resulting gap. It examines the uncertainty surrounding global politics and economic predictions, comparing current fears to past economic crises. The discussion highlights the low probability of a collapse of the liberal order, despite it being a worst-case scenario. Additionally, it considers China's potential short-term gains from the US's policy changes, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), but questions whether China can fully replace the US's role.

What are the two areas where China is positioning itself to gain influence if the US reduces its foreign policy engagement?

• Technology and education

• Military expansion and space exploration

• Free trade and climate change

• Healthcare and agriculture

What is the speaker's view on the predictions about the US retreating from its leadership role?

• They are irrelevant to global politics.

• They are already happening.

• They are exaggerated and unlikely.

• They are highly likely to happen.

How does the speaker compare the current global situation to the financial crisis eight years ago?

• Both are seen as high-probability events.

• Both are considered low-probability worst-case scenarios.

• The current situation is more severe.

• The financial crisis was less concerning.

What is the potential short-term effect of the US stepping back from agreements like the TPP?

• Global trade will cease.

• The US will regain its influence.

• Countries will align with China.

• China will face economic decline.

What is uncertain about China's ability to replace the US as a global leader?

• China's military strength

• China's long-term global influence

• China's technological advancements

• China's cultural impact