Oaktree's Howard Marks: We Are Not Market Timers

The video discusses predictions of a bond bear market since 2012, highlighting changes in the 10-year yield and the Fed's role. Oak Tree's investment strategy focuses on long-term investments rather than market timing or shorting bonds, which is challenging due to interest obligations. The video also analyzes expected returns on different asset classes, suggesting a blended return of around 5.5% for balanced portfolios, urging investors to reset expectations.

What has been a significant challenge in predicting a bond bear market since 2012?

• The decline in high yield bonds

• The stability of mortgage rates

• The fluctuating 10-year yield

• The consistent rise in stock prices

Why is shorting bonds considered difficult?

• Because it requires a large initial investment

• Because you owe interest when shorting a bond

• Because bonds are not easily tradable

• Because it involves high transaction fees

What is the expected return on equities since 1986?

• 5.5%

• 9.8%

• 8.4%

• 6.2%

What is a realistic expectation for a blended return on a balanced portfolio in the coming years?

• 7.5%

• 8.6%

• 6.6%

• 5.5%

Which asset class has historically returned 6.2%?

• Treasuries

• Mortgages

• Equities

• High yield bonds