Can ISM Contraction Impede the Fed's Rate Path?

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's potential rate hike timing, focusing on the December meeting as the likely scenario. It examines the impact of manufacturing data and unemployment figures on market expectations and Fed decisions. The analysis includes the correlation between Fed Fund futures and S&P Futures, highlighting the importance of not surprising the market. The discussion also covers Treasurys and yields, with a strategy for positioning in September, emphasizing a flatner on the curve by shorting the two-year sector and going long on the ten-year sector.

What is the base case for the timing of the Fed's rate hike according to the first section?

• Next year

• In December

• In September

• In three weeks

Why does the Fed avoid surprising the market with hawkish decisions?

• To maintain a strong dollar

• To prevent negative reactions in risky assets and equities

• To encourage foreign investment

• To boost manufacturing data

What is the historical relationship between Fed Fund futures and S&P futures?

• No correlation

• Inverse correlation

• Weak correlation

• Strong correlation

How is the market positioned for the upcoming Fed meetings?

• All cash position

• Long on the two-year sector

• Short on the ten-year sector

• Flatner on the curve with short on the two-year and long on the ten-year sector

What is the market's perception of the Fed's stance for the December meeting?

• The meeting is very much live and data dependent

• The meeting will definitely result in a rate hike

• The meeting is not significant

• The meeting will focus on international markets