Deep Dive: Fed Expectations, Treasury Outflows, Stocks

The video discusses the changing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes following a speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. It highlights the probability shifts for rate hikes in June, July, and September, and examines market reactions, including Treasury outflows and yield curve dynamics. The video also analyzes the market's calmness and stability in the face of potential rate hikes, using the City Economic Surprise Index and S&P as indicators. The conclusion points viewers to Twitter for more charts and data.

What was the probability of a Fed rate hike in July after Janet Yellen's speech?

• 67%

• 51%

• 59%

• 34%

What does the ETF SHY track?

• Short-term Treasurys

• Corporate Bonds

• Long-term Treasurys

• Municipal Bonds

What aspect of the yield curve does the Fed have less control over?

• Long end

• Middle section

• Entire curve

• Short end

How did the market react to the prospect of a rate hike over the past two years?

• With panic

• With indifference

• With calmness

• With increased volatility

What does the Economic Surprise Index measure in relation to the S&P 500?

• Unexpected economic data

• Economic growth

• Interest rate changes

• Market volatility