Oxford Economics’s Kuijs Sees China Growth at 6% This Year

The transcript discusses the impact of a phase one trade deal on economic growth, highlighting recent positive data and a 6% growth forecast. It examines policy measures, including a triple R cut, and the limited need for additional stimulus. The conversation addresses risks in trade relations, potential re-escalation, and the political nature of the trade deal, emphasizing the importance of judgments by the Trump administration on issues like tech transfer and intellectual property rights.

What recent developments led to an upgraded growth forecast of 6%?

• A rise in housing market activity

• A new trade deal and improved industrial data

• A decrease in global oil prices

• An increase in consumer spending

What is a potential risk associated with the phase one trade deal?

• Complete removal of all tariffs

• Immediate economic recession

• Re-escalation of tensions and tariffs

• Permanent economic growth

What is the main factor in evaluating the trade deal according to the transcript?

• Public opinion in both countries

• Legal analysis by international courts

• Economic forecasts by global banks

• Political judgment by the Trump administration

What is the length of the English version of the trade deal?

• 50 pages

• 86 pages

• 100 pages

• 120 pages

Who holds the strings in the evaluation of the trade deal?

• The World Trade Organization

• The United Nations

• The European Union

• Washington DC