PredictWise: 89% Chance of Hillary Clinton Winning

The video discusses the probabilities of winning the presidency, Senate, and House, focusing on Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. It explains market-based forecasts, comparing them with polling data and betting markets. The potential for political gridlock if Clinton wins but faces a Republican Congress is explored. Additionally, the video covers betting trends and state-level races, highlighting key states like Florida and North Carolina.

What is the estimated probability of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency according to the market-based forecast?

• 11%

• 66%

• 89%

• 50%

What is a key factor that betting markets consider beyond polling data?

• Media coverage

• Early voting trends

• Weather conditions

• Social media activity

What is the potential consequence if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency but the Democrats do not secure 50 or more Senate seats?

• Increased bipartisanship

• Obstructionism in Congress

• Immediate Supreme Court appointments

• A new election

Which states are seeing significant betting action due to Trump's campaign efforts?

• Ohio and Pennsylvania

• New York and Illinois

• Florida and North Carolina

• California and Texas

What is a popular betting trend regarding the margin of victory for Hillary Clinton?

• Winning by ten percentage points

• Winning by four or more percentage points

• Winning by exactly 2%

• Winning by less than 1%