UBS Sees Corporate Default Rate Rising to Near 9% by Year End

The video discusses the current state and projections of bankruptcy cycles and default rates, highlighting a rise in US speculative grade corporate default rates. It covers market expectations, insights from a CFO survey on lending standards, and the impact of government fiscal programs. Despite liquidity support, solvency concerns remain, especially for small and middle-market firms, where stress is evident. The video emphasizes monitoring these sectors for potential increases in default rates.

What is the current US speculative grade corporate default rate, and what is the predicted rate by the end of the year?

• 5.3% currently, rising to 9%

• 4.5% currently, rising to 8%

• 6.0% currently, rising to 10%

• 5.3% currently, remaining stable

How does the market's current pricing of default rates compare to the discussed predictions?

• The market is aligned with predictions

• The market is more optimistic

• The market is indifferent

• The market is more pessimistic

What role do fiscal programs like PPP loans play in the current economic environment?

• They increase default rates

• They provide liquidity and support

• They tighten lending standards

• They have no impact

Which type of businesses are most likely to face solvency concerns despite government support?

• Tech startups

• Small businesses

• Large corporations

• Non-profit organizations

Which firms are being closely monitored for signs of financial stress?

• Government-backed enterprises

• Leveraged loan firms and smaller market firms

• Tech giants

• Large multinational firms