Harrison: Post-Brexit, Trump Political Premium in Markets

The video discusses the heightened political risk in Europe following Brexit and Trump's election, focusing on the Italian referendum and French elections. It examines market reactions, polling accuracy, and potential investment strategies amid political uncertainties. The discussion highlights the differences between Brexit, Trump, and Marine Le Pen's situation in France, suggesting that political risk in Europe might be overestimated. The video also explores how investors might navigate these risks through various financial instruments.

What is the market's general expectation regarding the Italian referendum?

• A 'no' vote is expected.

• The referendum has been postponed.

• A 'yes' vote is expected.

• The market is indifferent.

How does the speaker view the polling errors in Brexit and Trump elections?

• They were only a few percentage points off.

• They were not conducted.

• They were significantly off.

• They were completely accurate.

What is the speaker's opinion on Marine Le Pen's situation in France compared to Brexit and Trump?

• It is different due to larger polling margins.

• It is more uncertain.

• It is very similar.

• It is less significant.

Which investment option does the speaker suggest might offer upside if political risk is overpriced?

• Cryptocurrencies

• Asian equities

• European banks

• American bonds

What is the likely political outcome in Italy if the referendum results in a 'no' vote?

• Immediate political turmoil

• Renzi remains Prime Minister

• Five Star Movement gains power

• A technocratic government