Bond Yields: A Reflection of U.S., or Europe and Japan?

The video discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting the impact of negative yields in Germany and Japan on US bond yields. It examines the US GDP forecast, noting low inventory growth and a new normal of below 2% growth. Inflation is identified as a lagging indicator, with recent wage increases suggesting potential inflationary pressures. The role of consumer spending as a key driver of the US economy is emphasized, supported by low gas prices and cheap imports.

What is the primary reason for the current low US bond yields according to the discussion?

• Negative yields in Germany and Japan.

• High inflation in the US.

• The US economy is collapsing.

• Strong US economic growth.

What is a key characteristic of inflation as mentioned in the video?

• It is a leading indicator.

• It occurs before full employment.

• It is a lagging indicator.

• It decreases with wage growth.

How have wages changed recently, indicating potential inflation?

• Wages have decreased by 1%.

• Wages have remained stable.

• Wages have accelerated by about half a percent.

• Wages have doubled.

What has been the trend in consumer spending relative to GDP?

• Consumer spending has been faster than GDP.

• Consumer spending has matched GDP growth.

• Consumer spending has been slower than GDP.

• Consumer spending has been negligible.

What factors are mentioned as supporting consumer spending?

• Weak labor market and high inflation.

• High interest rates and strong exports.

• Low gas prices and cheap imports.

• High gas prices and expensive imports.