U.S. Election: What to Watch for in the Markets

The transcript discusses potential market reactions to the US presidential election outcomes, focusing on the status quo scenario with a Clinton victory and a non-status quo scenario with a Trump victory. It analyzes the impact on the US 10-year yield, the pound, and other currencies, comparing these to Brexit scenarios. The discussion includes predictions for currency movements, particularly the Mexican peso, and the role of haven currencies.

What is the expected short-term impact on the US 10-year Treasury yield if Clinton wins the election?

• It will rise above 1.9% and possibly reach 2%

• It will remain unchanged

• It will remain below 1.9%

• It will drop to Brexit levels

How is the British pound expected to react in a status quo election result?

• It will drift slightly lower

• It will crash to new lows

• It will remain stable

• It will significantly rise

In the event of a Trump victory, what is the anticipated immediate reaction of the dollar?

• It will strengthen

• It will weaken

• It will remain stable

• It will fluctuate unpredictably

Which currency is considered a Trump proxy and is expected to be significantly affected by a Trump victory?

• Mexican Peso

• British Pound

• Japanese Yen

• Euro

What is the expected action of the SMB in response to significant currency movements following a Trump victory?

• They will increase interest rates

• They will sell off reserves

• They will definitely be involved

• They will remain passive