Lazard's Temple Expects US to Avoid a Recession

The video discusses economic indicators, focusing on shelter prices, core goods, and inflation trends. It examines the Federal Reserve's rate hikes and their impact on the economy, highlighting the strong labor market. The debate on whether the labor market needs cooling to control inflation is explored, with insights into wage growth and job trends. The likelihood of avoiding a recession is also considered, emphasizing the need for slow growth to maintain long-term inflation control.

What was the peak month-on-month inflation rate for shelter prices mentioned in the video?

• 30 basis points

• 45 basis points

• 80 basis points

• 12 basis points

What is the Federal Reserve's expected action on July 26th according to the video?

• End quantitative tightening

• Decrease rates by 25 basis points

• Increase rates by 25 basis points

• Pause rate hikes

What was the average monthly job growth for the first six months of the year?

• 150,000 jobs

• 300,000 jobs

• 278,000 jobs

• 209,000 jobs

According to the video, what is the quit rate an indicator of?

• Economic recession

• Interest rate changes

• Job market strength

• Inflation trends

What is the base case probability of avoiding a recession in the US as mentioned in the video?

• 85%

• 65%

• 50%

• 75%