Guotai Junan's Zhou on China Trade

The transcript discusses the current state of external demand and China's export performance, noting a surprising upside in Q1 GDP data. It explores domestic demand challenges, particularly in consumption and the property market, and the potential for policy support. The discussion also covers monetary policy, with expectations of rate cuts due to low inflation and mixed economic growth. Finally, it examines the impact of rising savings and borrowing on the economy, highlighting the importance of narrowing the gap between loans and deposits for future growth.

What was the surprising element in China's economic data for the first quarter?

• A decline in export numbers

• An upside surprise in export numbers

• A rapid recovery in domestic consumption

• A significant drop in GDP

What is the current state of import growth in China according to the transcript?

• Import growth is unpredictable

• Import growth is declining

• Import growth is flat

• Import growth is rapidly increasing

How does the transcript describe the current economic picture in China?

• Uncertain

• Mixed

• Entirely negative

• Completely positive

What is expected from the PBOC in the near future according to the discussion?

• A focus on increasing inflation

• An increase in policy rates

• A reduction in policy rates

• No change in monetary policy

What trend is observed in household savings and borrowing in China?

• Both savings and borrowing are decreasing

• Savings are stable while borrowing is decreasing

• Both savings and borrowing are rising

• Savings are decreasing while borrowing is increasing