H.K. May See Negative GDP in Second Half: BofAML's Qiao

The video discusses the economic impact of recent events, highlighting the initial GDP undershoot and Hong Kong's role in China's economy. It explores the effects of ongoing protests on economic sentiment and business decisions, projecting potential future impacts and government responses. Concerns about the labor market and social discontent are also addressed.

What was the GDP growth rate in the second quarter, and how did it compare to expectations?

• 0.6%, which was below the expected 1.5%

• 1.5%, which met expectations

• 0.6%, which was above the expected 0.3%

• 2.0%, exceeding expectations

How has Hong Kong's role in China's economy changed since the handover?

• It has decreased from 14-15% to 3%

• It has remained constant at 10%

• It has increased from 3% to 20%

• It has increased from 3% to 14-15%

What financial mechanisms have helped mitigate the impact on capital flows through Hong Kong?

• Increased tariffs

• Bond connect and stock connect

• Trade embargoes

• Currency devaluation

What are the two key timelines mentioned that could influence the protests' impact on the economy?

• The start of the school year and the 70th anniversary celebration

• The end of the fiscal year and the start of the new year

• The Chinese New Year and the Mid-Autumn Festival

• The summer holidays and the winter holidays

What is a potential concern for the labor market if protests continue?

• Increased foreign investment

• Rising inflation

• Higher unemployment rates

• Decreased government spending