ABN Amro’s Duret Says Markets Under Spell of Trump Effect

The transcript discusses the implications of the Dutch election on European markets, highlighting the low risk due to the coalition system. It also explores strategies for hedging against political risks, emphasizing geographical diversification. The potential impact of the Dutch election on the French election is considered, noting the possibility of unexpected results from extreme parties. The French election is seen as high-stakes, with significant voter motivation and potential for a high turnout, possibly leading to a political center rebuilding.

What is the primary reason the Dutch election is considered low risk for the European market?

• Low voter turnout

• The presence of a coalition system

• High sovereign risk

• The Trump effect

What is the recommended strategy for hedging against political risks in the Netherlands and France?

• Investing in emerging markets

• Geographical diversification

• Short-term hedging before elections

• Buying gold

How might the Dutch election results influence the French election?

• By reducing the stakes in the French election

• By changing the coalition system in France

• By affecting perceptions of risk

• By increasing voter turnout in France

What behavior might cause extreme party results to be underestimated in polls?

• Inaccurate polling methods

• Media bias

• Hiding behavior from the electorate

• High voter turnout

What is expected to be a significant factor in the upcoming French presidential elections?

• Rebuilding of the political center

• A shift towards extreme parties

• Low voter engagement

• Decreased motivation to vote