JPMorgan's Feroli Expects Recession This Year

The transcript discusses the economic outlook, predicting a recession by year's end due to the Fed's tightening policies. It highlights concerns about inflation and the Fed's strategy to manage it, including potential rate hikes. The discussion includes insights from ISM data, indicating easing price pressures but persistent labor market strength. The Fed's commitment to a 2% inflation target is examined, with predictions on when it might be achieved. The transcript concludes with a discussion on the Fed's rate strategy and potential market reactions.

What is the expected economic trend by the end of the year according to the first section?

• Economic growth

• Stable economy

• Rapid inflation

• Recession

What is the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate?

• 1%

• 2%

• 3%

• 4%

Which type of inflation is tied to labor market performance?

• Goods inflation

• Rent inflation

• Services excluding rent

• Core inflation

What trend is observed in the ISM data regarding production?

• Production is increasing

• Production is stable

• Production is unpredictable

• Production is declining

How long might the Federal Reserve hold at their terminal rate according to the third section?

• Indefinitely

• Two years

• A year

• A few months