We Are Very Positive on MSCI China, Says Credit Suisse’s Tantia

The video discusses the ongoing trade talks between the US and China, highlighting the potential for a trade deal by the end of Q4. It analyzes the MSCI China index, noting its focus on the new economy sector and online retail growth. The video also addresses the risks to markets if a trade deal is not reached, particularly in the bond and equity markets. Additionally, it considers the impact of the US election campaign on trade negotiations and market volatility, emphasizing the role of the Federal Reserve in easing policy if economic momentum slows.

What is the expected timeline for a potential trade deal between the US and China?

• By the end of Q4

• By the end of Q3

• By the end of Q2

• By the end of Q1

Why is the MSCI China index considered a good investment opportunity?

• It represents the traditional economy sector

• It has a significant portion in the Internet sector

• It focuses on the agricultural sector

• It is heavily invested in manufacturing

What is a major risk for the equity market if no trade deal is reached?

• Increase in bond yields

• Pressure on the manufacturing sector

• Growth in the agricultural sector

• Decrease in online retail sales

How might the US election campaign influence the trade talks?

• It will lead to more tariffs

• It will speed up the trade deal

• It might delay the trade deal for electoral reasons

• It will have no influence

What could support the markets if there is no further escalation in tariffs?

• Increase in interest rates

• Fed easing policy if economic momentum slows

• Introduction of new tariffs

• Decrease in online retail sales