Brexit Probability Declines as Campaigns Remain Quiet

The video discusses the impact of Labour MP Joe Cox's death on Brexit campaigning and the fluctuating odds of Brexit as observed through oddschecker. It highlights the significant volatility in the pound, especially in the context of historical events like the Lehman crisis, indicating market anxiety. The discussion also covers the trade-weighted British pound, noting its intraday volatility and the challenges faced by the Bank of England in this context.

What tool is mentioned as useful for gauging the probability of Brexit?

• Oddschecker

• Bloomberg Terminal

• Lehman Index

• Sterling FX Chart

How did the odds of Brexit change from the beginning of the month to the current standing?

• From 15% to 35%

• From 20% to 36%

• From 10% to 30%

• From 25% to 40%

How does the current volatility in the sterling FX market compare to the 2008 Lehman crisis?

• It is higher than in 2008

• It is lower than in 2008

• It is unrelated to 2008

• It is similar to 2008

What does the one-week volatility chart in the sterling FX market indicate?

• Unprecedented volatility

• Decreasing anxiety

• Stable market conditions

• Predictable trends

Despite intraday volatility, how did the trade-weighted British pound close the week?

• Higher than last week

• Lower than last week

• At the same level as last week

• Unpredictably