Ian Bremmer Says Le Pen Can Really Win and Cause Crisis

The transcript discusses the potential impact of European elections, particularly in France, on Brexit negotiations and European politics. It analyzes the chances of Le Pen winning and the subsequent market reactions and risks. The discussion also covers Le Pen's capacity to govern and the broader geopolitical implications of her potential win, including effects on the EU and global politics.

How might the French election impact Brexit negotiations if Le Pen wins?

• It would lead to a constructive negotiation.

• It would make negotiations inconceivable.

• It would speed up the negotiation process.

• It would have no impact.

What is the estimated probability of Le Pen winning according to Eurasia Group?

• 60%

• 40%

• 20%

• 15%

What is a potential consequence of a Le Pen victory on the French economy?

• Economic growth

• A need for a bailout

• Stability in the markets

• Increased foreign investment

How would a Le Pen victory potentially affect the European Union?

• It would lead to further integration.

• It would have no effect.

• It would lead to further disintegration.

• It would strengthen the EU.

Which global leader might benefit politically from a Le Pen victory?

• Angela Merkel

• Theresa May

• Emmanuel Macron

• Justin Trudeau