Thai Market Has Room to Catch Up After Election: Ongkunarak

The video discusses the Thai stock market's recent underperformance and the potential positive impact of upcoming elections. Historically, elections have boosted the Thai equity market, and this trend is expected to continue. The target index for year-end is set at 1720, based on a 10-year average P/E ratio. Key sectors like tourism and consumer private consumption are expected to drive GDP growth. The political landscape is complex, with multiple parties likely to form a coalition, making it challenging to implement populist policies. Despite concerns about public debt and inflation, the consumer sector is expected to thrive due to policies like cash handouts and minimum wage increases. The central bank is expected to manage inflation effectively, with only a slight interest rate hike anticipated.

What is the expected market behavior around Thai elections based on historical data?

• A decline of 5% before and 3% after elections

• No significant change before or after elections

• A rally of 3% before and 5% after elections

• A decline of 3% before and 5% after elections

How was the year-end target index of 1720 determined?

• Using a 5-year average P/E ratio

• Based on current market trends

• Using a 10-year average P/E ratio and earnings per share

• By predicting future economic policies

Which sectors are expected to lead GDP growth in Thailand?

• Technology and healthcare

• Tourism and consumer private consumption

• Real estate and construction

• Energy and utilities

What is a common policy among Thai political parties that could impact the market?

• Cash handouts and raising minimum wage

• Increasing corporate taxes

• Reducing public spending

• Privatizing state-owned enterprises

What is the central bank's current stance on inflation and interest rates?

• Concerned about rising inflation

• Planning multiple rate hikes

• No changes in interest rates expected

• Inflation is under control with a possible single rate hike