Morning Meeting: What May's Low Job Number Means

The video discusses the current state of GDP growth and payroll trends, highlighting a discrepancy between the two. While GDP growth is below trend, payrolls have been strong but are now slowing. The analysis includes a three-month average of payroll data, excluding temporary factors like the Verizon strike. The discussion then shifts to the Federal Reserve's upcoming meetings, predicting no rate hike in June due to market unpreparedness and labor market uncertainties. The possibility of a rate hike in July or September is considered, depending on further economic data and external factors like the UK referendum.

What is the current trend in GDP growth according to the video?

• Below trend

• Above trend

• At trend

• Unchanged

What payroll growth rate is considered acceptable at this stage of the economic cycle?

• 300,000 per month

• 38,000 per month

• 130,000 per month

• 200,000 per month

What external factor was mentioned as impacting the payroll numbers?

• The Verizon strike

• A government shutdown

• A stock market crash

• A natural disaster

Why is a Federal Reserve rate hike in June considered unlikely?

• The economy is too strong

• The markets are not ready

• Inflation is too high

• The unemployment rate is too low

When is the next potential Federal Reserve rate hike expected, according to the forecast?

• September

• July

• June

• August