JPMorgan Research Chair Chang on Trade War, Global Economy, Markets

The transcript discusses the expectations of investors regarding trade talks between the US and China, focusing on the potential for a mini deal. It highlights the economic outlook for 2020, emphasizing geopolitical risks and the role of monetary policy. The discussion also covers central bank policies, including synchronized easing and its effects on markets. Additionally, it addresses global growth prospects, potential risks, and the impact of geopolitical issues on capital flows, particularly in emerging markets.

What was the main expectation of investors regarding the US-China trade talks?

• A comprehensive trade deal

• A mini deal to avoid tariff escalation

• Complete removal of all tariffs

• Increased national security measures

What are the major concerns for investors in 2020?

• Increased agricultural production

• Rising geopolitical risks and business sentiment

• Higher tariffs on European goods

• Expansion of the US manufacturing sector

Which central bank policy is expected to dominate the economic narrative in the US?

• Monetary policy easing by the Fed

• Increased tariffs on Chinese goods

• Reduction in agricultural subsidies

• Expansion of the US military

What is the expected trend for global growth in the upcoming quarters?

• Stagnation in the US only

• Rapid growth in emerging markets

• Weak growth in the US, Europe, and Asia

• Strong growth across all regions

Why are emerging markets becoming more attractive to investors?

• High positive yields in developed markets

• Negative yields in a significant portion of global bonds

• Stable geopolitical environment

• Strong currency performance