Stifel Warns of a Possible Late-2019 S&P 500 Correction

The video discusses market sector upgrades and downgrades, focusing on cyclicals and defensives. It highlights the importance of trade deals for global growth and the potential impact of a market correction if a phase one deal isn't completed. The discussion also covers the S&P 500's pricing, with a target of 3265, and the influence of real rates on market estimates. The overall outlook suggests limited upside for the S&P 500 but potential gains for cyclical trades.

What sectors were upgraded in October 2019 due to anticipated better Fed policy?

• Defensive sectors

• Utilities and reeds

• Cyclical sectors

• Telecoms and staples

What is the expected market reaction if a phase one trade deal is not completed?

• No impact on the market

• A significant market crash

• A rally in defensive stocks

• An intra-sector correction

Which trade strategy is expected to be favorable if trade negotiations progress positively?

• Long defensive, short cyclical

• Short both cyclical and defensive

• Long cyclical, short defensive

• Short cyclical, long defensive

What is the target estimate for the S&P 500 in 2020 based on the discussed real rate?

• 1700

• 5000

• 3265

• 1600

What is the main reason for limited upside in the S&P 500 according to the discussion?

• Very low real rates

• High inflation rates

• Increased market volatility

• Strong defensive sector performance