The US Dollar Is Peaking: BNY Mellon's Yu

The video discusses the limited marginal upside for the dollar, assuming the Fed's terminal rate remains around 5%. It highlights the heavy dollar positioning and contrasts scenarios of peaking versus coming off. The discussion then shifts to the yen, questioning the significance of the 150 mark. It examines the roles of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, noting that as long as the Bank of Japan has government support for its monetary policy, the yen's position may not change significantly.

What is the assumed Fed terminal rate discussed in the context of the dollar's marginal upside?

• 3%

• 4%

• 5%

• 6%

What is the significance of the yen reaching 150 according to the discussion?

• It marks the end of yen depreciation.

• It depends on the perspective of different financial authorities.

• It is irrelevant to the current market conditions.

• It is a definitive line in the sand.

Which two entities have differing views on the yen's 150 threshold?

• The Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan

• The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank

• The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund

• The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank

What factor is crucial for a change in the dollar-yen exchange rate according to the discussion?

• A decrease in the European Central Bank's rates

• An increase in global oil prices

• A shift in the Federal Reserve's interest rates

• A change in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy

What is the role of the Bank of Japan in the context of yen policy?

• To independently decide on monetary policy with government support

• To align strictly with the Ministry of Finance

• To follow the European Central Bank's lead

• To focus solely on fiscal policy