Carlyle's Thomas Says Time for Fed to Retire Restrictive Language

The video discusses the perceived restrictiveness of economic policies, highlighting that despite a high real fed funds rate, GDP and productivity growth remain strong. It suggests retiring the language of restrictiveness as it may mislead market participants. The video also examines the yield curve, noting that the market is repricing the neutral rate, with a modestly positive term premium reflecting a shift from past expectations.

What has been the real GDP growth rate over the past 18 months, according to the transcript?

• 1.5%

• 3%

• 2%

• 4%

What does the rise in the long end of the yield curve suggest about the market's view?

• The market is predicting a stock market crash.

• The market is anticipating higher inflation.

• The market is expecting a recession.

• The market is repricing the neutral rate.

What was the average term premium in the 1990s?

• 50 basis points

• 100 basis points

• 150 basis points

• 200 basis points

What is a possible reason for the current modestly positive term premium?

• Higher inflation expectations

• Increased bond offerings

• Concerns about the fiscal outlook

• Repricing of the neutral rate

How has the term premium changed during the period of QE and large reserve accumulations?

• It was zero or negative.

• It remained stable.

• It became significantly positive.

• It fluctuated widely.