Goldman Sachs' Shan on China's Economy

The video discusses China's economic outlook, focusing on macro data, high-frequency indicators, and the property market. It highlights the uncertainty in the housing sector and the stabilization of property prices due to government measures. The video also examines Chinese consumer behavior, particularly their reluctance to spend excess savings post-lockdown. Expectations for economic growth and potential stimulus policies are discussed, with a focus on GDP growth targets and budget deficits. The video concludes with insights into the property sector and lending rate expectations.

What is the current trend in China's high-frequency data indicators?

• Mobility is declining and housing sales are stable.

• Mobility is robust and housing sales are declining.

• Mobility is stable and housing sales are increasing.

• Mobility is declining and housing sales are increasing.

How do Chinese consumers' spending habits post-lockdown compare to those in other countries?

• Chinese consumers are more likely to spend excess savings.

• Chinese consumers are less likely to spend excess savings.

• Chinese consumers have no excess savings to spend.

• Chinese consumers spend excess savings at the same rate as other countries.

What is the expected GDP growth target discussed in the video?

• 3%

• 5%

• 7%

• 10%

What is the anticipated stance of the Central Bank regarding lending rates?

• Rates will fluctuate significantly.

• Rates are expected to increase.

• Rates are expected to remain on hold.

• Significant rate cuts are expected.

What narrative is expected to continue into the two sessions regarding the property sector?

• A narrative of stability.

• A narrative of decline.

• A focus on speculation.

• A pro-growth narrative.