JPM Economist Says Consumer Fundamentals Setting Up Well for 2Q

The video discusses the economic indicators for March, highlighting improvements in retail and auto sales, and a 50-year low in jobless claims. It examines the impact of the government shutdown on retail sales and the consumer discretionary sector's performance. The video concludes with an optimistic outlook for the US economy, driven by strong consumer fundamentals and a positive labor market.

What economic indicators for March suggest a positive outlook for the second quarter?

• High inflation rates and increased interest rates

• Decreased consumer spending and high unemployment

• Strong retail and auto sales, and low jobless claims

• Weak housing market and declining GDP

What was one of the factors that caused shakiness in consumer spending around the turn of the year?

• Increase in oil prices

• Decrease in technology stocks

• Government shutdown

• Rise in global trade tensions

What is the likelihood of consumer discretionary outperforming after a downturn?

• 10%

• 50%

• 90%

• 70%

What is a critical driver for the consumer discretionary sector?

• Interest rates

• Margins

• Government policies

• Exchange rates

What is the expected GDP growth rate for the first quarter, despite the headwinds faced?

• 2.5%

• 1%

• 3.5%

• 4%