Russia Lives With an Unrealistic Budget: Guriev

The transcript discusses the recent 12% rise in the ruble, the Central Bank's efforts to stabilize the market, and the challenges posed by $300 billion in external debt amidst sanctions. It explores potential solutions, including changes in foreign policy and budget assumptions. The discussion also covers the impact of sanctions on Russia's economic model, the potential for political instability, and predictions about Putin's regime. Despite high approval ratings, the transcript questions the reliability of these figures due to propaganda and censorship.

What reassured the market despite the panic this week?

• An increase in foreign investments

• A rise in oil prices

• Statements from the Central Bank and government

• A decrease in external debt

What is the major financial challenge facing Russian banks and corporates?

• Paying $300 billion of external debt

• Rising unemployment rates

• Decreasing foreign investments

• Increasing inflation rates

What unrealistic assumptions is the Russian budget currently based on?

• 3% growth and $80 per barrel oil price

• 2% growth and $100 per barrel oil price

• 5% growth and $50 per barrel oil price

• 1% growth and $120 per barrel oil price

How does the current economic crisis compare to the 2008-2009 crisis?

• It is less severe

• It is more severe

• It is about the same

• It is unrelated

What is a potential outcome for the Russian regime in the next decade?

• A peaceful transition through elections

• A coup led by Putin's inner circle

• A stable continuation

• An economic boom

What factor is contributing to Putin's high popularity ratings?

• International support

• Total propaganda and censorship

• Military success

• Economic prosperity

What might trigger a reawakening of the Russian population?

• A new foreign policy

• A sudden drop in oil prices

• A faster market panic

• An increase in censorship