New Age Alpha Julian Koski on Investment Strategy

The video discusses the challenges of picking winning stocks and avoiding losers, emphasizing the unpredictability of the future. It introduces a methodology focused on avoiding losers by applying insurance principles, rather than traditional portfolio management. The video analyzes specific stocks, identifying those with high and low probabilities of failing to meet growth expectations. It also considers macroeconomic factors, particularly in the context of Chinese companies. Finally, it examines the potential impact of Federal Reserve policies on stock prices and investment opportunities.

What is the main focus of the methodology discussed in the first section?

• Picking winning stocks

• Avoiding losing stocks

• Maximizing short-term gains

• Following traditional portfolio management

Which principle is used to avoid losers in stock picking?

• Technical analysis

• Insurance principles

• Market trends

• Economic forecasts

What is the probability of failure for Walgreens, Merck, and Norwegian Cruise Lines?

• 50%

• 60%

• 70%

• 80%

Why is it important to consider macroeconomic factors when investing in Chinese companies?

• They are influenced by China's policies

• They are unaffected by global markets

• They have stable growth rates

• They have high failure probabilities

What is the probability that Tesla will deliver the growth implied in its stock price?

• 100%

• 14%

• 50%

• 86%

Which factor is crucial when evaluating the impact of the Federal Reserve's actions on stock prices?

• Market rumors

• Company's daily operations

• Stock price valuation

• Investor emotions

What should investors focus on to determine if a company can deliver growth?

• Past stock performance

• Market sentiment

• Implied revenue growth rate

• Volatility and beta