Paul Krugman Discusses Government Shutdown, Rate Hikes, Recession, U.S.-China Trade

The video discusses the limited impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the economy, the Federal Reserve's rate decisions, and potential future actions. It predicts a possible recession due to accumulating economic issues and inadequate policy responses. The global economic risks, particularly in China and Europe, are highlighted, along with the U.S. trade conflict with China, which is largely driven by President Trump.

What was the perceived impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the economy?

• It had a significant long-term impact.

• It was compared to a stretch of bad weather.

• It caused a major economic downturn.

• It led to immediate policy changes.

Why was the Federal Reserve's normalization of rates considered not well-grounded?

• There was a strong inflation signal.

• The economy was booming.

• There was insufficient inflation to justify rate hikes.

• The unemployment rate was too high.

What is the likelihood of a recession according to the transcript?

• Impossible

• Better than even odds

• Highly unlikely

• Already happening

How does the current economic situation compare to the last crisis?

• The world is in worse shape now.

• The world is in better shape now.

• Interest rates are higher now.

• Public debt is lower now.

What are the two major global economic risks mentioned?

• U.S. inflation and unemployment

• Brazil's inflation and Russia's policies

• China's consumption and Europe's slowdown

• Japan's debt and India's growth

What is the main driver of the U.S. trade conflict with China?

• Public demand for tariffs

• Congressional mandates

• A broad protectionist movement

• President Trump's personal agenda

What is the stance of Germany regarding fiscal expansion?

• Germany is leading fiscal expansion.

• Germany is reluctant to expand fiscally.

• Germany has no fiscal space.

• Germany is neutral on fiscal policies.