Why We Won't See a Fed Rate Hike in Sept.

The video discusses the likelihood of a rate hike in September, with a low probability of 10-15%. It explores the impact of global central banks on yields and market volatility, highlighting the role of QE. The focus then shifts to emerging markets, emphasizing the need for careful investment due to political risks and credit issues. Finally, the video examines the effects of Brexit on UK markets, noting the surprising performance of equity markets and the influence of central bank policies.

What is the probability of a rate hike in September according to the discussion?

• 50%

• 0%

• 25%

• 10-15%

What is causing the market to struggle with key themes?

• Volatility in global markets

• Unclear themes and Fed flip-flops

• Stable economic growth

• Consistent Fed policies

How are central banks from the UK to Japan affecting global yields?

• By selling government bonds

• By buying assets and forcing yields down

• By increasing interest rates

• By stabilizing currency values

What is the outlook on emerging markets according to the discussion?

• Negative due to high inflation

• Negative due to political instability

• Neutral with no significant changes

• Positive with a focus on external debt

What is the expected response to potential scarcity issues in emerging market debt?

• Increased interest rates

• Government intervention

• Supply response to meet demand

• Decreased foreign investment

How has Brexit affected UK equity markets?

• Stable performance with no changes

• Surprising performance despite growth concerns

• Decreased performance of Footsie 250

• Increased growth expectations

What is the expected impact of Brexit on UK consumption?

• Slight decrease in spending

• Increase in consumer spending

• Significant decrease in spending

• No impact on consumer spending