StanChart's Ding on China's Trade Performance

The transcript discusses the rapid pace of economic relaxation since November, driven by unsustainable fiscal and public sentiment issues. It highlights the impact of strict COVID policies on consumption and GDP, leading to higher unemployment and fiscal stress. The government's response to protests includes easing COVID policies, with a focus on economic recovery in 2023. Lessons from Hong Kong and Taiwan's COVID response are considered, and the potential for economic recovery is analyzed, with GDP growth expected to rebound to 5-6%. The trade data reflects weak demand, but the relaxation of COVID policies may boost consumption.

What factors have contributed to the faster-than-expected relaxation of policies since November?

• Unsustainable fiscal and public sentiment

• Higher GDP growth

• Increased vaccination rates

• Improved hospital capacity

What impact did the strict quality control measures have on China's economy last year?

• Higher unemployment rates

• Decreased fiscal deficit

• Increased GDP growth

• Improved trade surplus

What was the estimated fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP in 2022?

• 7.3%

• 6.3%

• 8.3%

• 5.5%

How did the central government respond to the protests and unrest?

• By increasing lockdown measures

• By relaxing PCR testing requirements

• By implementing new fiscal policies

• By reducing vaccination efforts

What is the expected GDP growth range for China in 2023?

• 6% to 7%

• 5% to 6%

• 4% to 5%

• 3% to 4%

Which region served as a blueprint for China's reopening strategy?

• Singapore

• Taiwan

• Hong Kong

• South Korea

What is the main driver of GDP growth expected in 2023?

• Household consumption

• Infrastructure investment

• Export growth

• Government spending