If Trade Talks Improve, Should See Strengthening of Yuan, Says CICC’s Yi

The video discusses the potential outcomes of the US-China trade deal, highlighting market expectations and tariff implications. It analyzes upcoming economic data, particularly GDP growth, and its impact on monetary policy. The constraints on monetary policy due to inflation and deleveraging are explored. The fragility of the Chinese consumer market is examined, focusing on auto sales and consumption trends. Finally, the video addresses the impact of trade tensions on currency strength and the central bank's approach.

What was the market's initial expectation regarding the US-China trade deal?

• A 10% tariff hike

• A 5% tariff hike

• No change in tariffs

• Complete removal of tariffs

Why is the upcoming GDP release considered significant?

• It might show a growth above 10%

• It could indicate a slowdown to 6% growth

• It is expected to be the highest since 1992

• It will likely show no change from the previous quarter

What is a major constraint on China's monetary policy?

• Rising PPI

• Core inflation increase

• High pork prices

• Structural issues like deleveraging

What trend has been observed in Chinese auto sales?

• Consistent growth over the past year

• A contraction in 15 out of 16 months

• Stable sales with no significant change

• A sudden increase in the last quarter

How is the Chinese Central Bank's approach to loosening described?

• Unchanged from previous years

• Completely halted

• At a much slower pace than the rest of the world

• More aggressive than the US and Europe

What is the expected impact of easing trade tensions on the RMB?

• Weakening of the RMB

• Strengthening of the RMB

• No impact on the RMB

• Volatility in the RMB

What is the current state of mass product consumption in China?

• Strong, especially among the middle class

• Stable with no growth

• Declining rapidly

• Weakening due to high agricultural prices