UBS' Gupta Jain on RBI Rate Decision

The video discusses the RBI's prioritization of inflation over currency defense, with expectations of a policy rate hike. It highlights the peaking of inflation in India and the impact of global commodity prices. The discussion also covers the challenges faced by the INR and market inflows due to global financial conditions. Signs of economic recovery are noted, driven by services consumption and bank credit. The uneven monsoon distribution raises concerns about domestic food prices, particularly rice, affecting inflation outlook.

What is the primary focus of the RBI according to the discussion?

• Employment

• Inflation

• Currency defense

• External stability

What is the expected range for the repo rate hike mentioned?

• 25 to 35 basis points

• 5 to 15 basis points

• 40 to 50 basis points

• 10 to 20 basis points

What is a significant concern for inflation in India despite the peak being behind?

• Rising global oil prices

• Rising domestic food prices

• Increasing imports

• Decreasing exports

What is the estimated current account deficit for the first half of the financial year?

• 3.5% to 4% of GDP

• 2% to 3% of GDP

• 4.5% to 5% of GDP

• 1% to 2% of GDP

What has been the trend in capital flows according to the discussion?

• Supportive

• Neutral

• Excessive

• Not supportive

What is the status of the UBS India Composite Economic Indicator?

• Stable

• Improving

• Unchanged

• Declining

What is a major concern regarding the monsoon's impact on agriculture?

• Excessive rainfall

• Even distribution of rainfall

• Uneven distribution of rainfall

• Lack of rainfall