Goldman’s Currie Is Watching Three Commodities Themes in 2020

The video discusses China's 2020 purchase plans from the US, highlighting livestock and corn as areas of potential growth, while soybeans and cotton may see less demand. It examines China's energy demand, particularly LNG and oil, and the impact of trade deals. The video also explores trends in the commodity sector, noting a decline in cap ex and the influence of ESG strategies. Investment opportunities in commodities are discussed, focusing on backwardation and market dynamics. Finally, the video analyzes the gold and copper markets, emphasizing geopolitical risks, central bank demand, and supply constraints.

Which two commodities are expected to have an upside surprise in the US-China trade for 2020?

• Beef and Pork

• Oil and LNG

• Corn and Livestock

• Soybeans and Cotton

What is the expected impact of the trade deal on China's oil demand in 2020?

• Moderate increase

• Significant decrease

• No impact

• Significant increase

What is backwardation in the context of commodity markets?

• A situation where future prices are higher than current prices

• A situation where supply exceeds demand

• A situation where current prices are higher than future prices

• A situation where demand exceeds supply

Why is gold considered a better hedge than oil for geopolitical risks?

• Gold is more widely traded

• Gold is less affected by supply and demand shocks

• Gold has a higher market value

• Gold prices are more stable

What is one reason for the increased demand for gold by central banks?

• D Dollarization

• Increased supply of gold

• Decreased oil prices

• Increased geopolitical stability

What is the expected price target for gold according to the transcript?

• $1500

• $1800

• $1600

• $1700

What specific development in China is expected to drive demand for copper?

• Increased construction activities

• Increased electronics manufacturing

• Grid demand

• Increased automotive production