Robertson Stephens' Garretty on US Economic outlook

The video discusses the World Interest Rate Probability (WIRP) function on the Bloomberg Terminal, highlighting a 0% chance of a Fed rate change. It explores the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate decisions, influenced by recent economic growth and inflation data. The narrative suggests that while the Fed may hold rates, the possibility of future increases remains due to strong economic indicators. The discussion also covers the potential for a recession, emphasizing the need for updated economic forecasts and the importance of employment data in shaping monetary policy.

What does the WIRP function indicate about the Fed's interest rate decision?

• A 75% chance of a rate increase

• A 0% chance of any rate change

• A 25% chance of a rate decrease

• A 50% chance of a rate increase

What recent economic data is influencing the Fed's decision-making process?

• Declining growth and increasing inflation

• Stable growth and stable inflation

• Strong growth and decelerating inflation

• Weak growth and high inflation

What is the Fed's likely stance on future rate hikes according to the recent narrative?

• They will lower rates immediately

• They will definitely raise rates this year

• They are done with rate hikes for the year

• They will raise rates by 50 basis points

What type of factors are influencing inflation according to the discussion?

• Only structural factors

• Only cyclical factors

• Neither structural nor cyclical factors

• Both structural and cyclical factors

What is the Fed's strategy regarding further rate increases?

• Reducing rates immediately

• Ignoring inflation trends

• Waiting to see progress on inflation

• Immediate rate increases

What is the current risk of a recession according to the discussion?

• Depends on future economic conditions

• Guaranteed recession next year

• High risk this year

• No risk at all

What challenge does the Fed face with its economic forecasts?

• They are perfectly accurate

• They need to adjust their forecasts

• They are too pessimistic on growth

• They are too optimistic on inflation