Oxford Economics Priyanka Kishore on Indian GDP, Geopolitical Risks

The video discusses the impact of rising oil prices on India's inflation and economic growth, highlighting the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) challenges in managing inflation amidst geopolitical tensions. It explores India's geopolitical dilemmas, particularly its relationships with Russia and China, and the economic dependencies on fertilizers. The RBI's monetary policy approach is analyzed, focusing on inflation control and interest rates. The video also touches on India's currency strategy, including potential diversification from the dollar and the role of the digital rupee.

How does a $10 increase in oil prices affect India's inflation and growth?

• Increases growth by 0.2% and inflation by 0.4%

• Decreases growth by 0.2% and increases inflation by 0.4%

• Increases growth by 0.4% and inflation by 0.2%

• Decreases growth by 0.4% and increases inflation by 0.2%

What geopolitical challenge does India face in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

• Choosing between supporting China or the US

• Managing trade relations with the European Union

• Balancing relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia

• Deciding whether to align with the West or Russia

What is the RBI's current stance on interest rates in response to inflation?

• Immediate rate hikes

• Gradual normalization without abrupt changes

• Maintaining current rates indefinitely

• Significant rate cuts

What is a potential risk if inflation expectations become anchored?

• Stable economic growth

• Increased foreign investment

• Double-digit headline CPI levels

• Deflationary spiral

What challenge does India face in diversifying away from the dollar and euro?

• Dependence on the Chinese yuan

• Over-reliance on gold reserves

• Lack of alternative currencies

• Inability to trade with neighboring countries

What role could the digital rupee play in India's currency strategy?

• Eliminate the need for foreign exchange reserves

• Facilitate domestic transactions only

• Replace the US dollar in global trade

• Serve as an alternative to traditional currencies

What is the impact of sanctions on the Russian Central Bank for India?

• Strengthened ties with the European Union

• Reduced dependency on digital currencies

• Challenges in currency diversification

• Increased trade with Russia