UBS' Tao on China Economic Prospects

The video discusses the economic revival measures in Shanghai following COVID-19 lockdowns, evaluating the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies. It analyzes growth and fiscal deficit targets, highlighting the challenges in meeting them due to external factors like the Russian invasion and Omicron variant. The video breaks down the contributions of consumption and investment to economic growth, emphasizing the role of infrastructure. It also examines the potential impact of China's policies on global inflation, noting improvements in transport and port activities.

What is the expected trend for economic activities in Shanghai following the recent measures?

• A rapid return to normal

• A further decline

• A gradual rebound

• Immediate full recovery

Which policy measure is considered more effective in the current situation?

• Higher interest rates

• Increased property sales

• Infrastructure spending

• Tax cuts

What is the revised GDP growth forecast for China this year?

• 4%

• 5.5%

• 6%

• 3%

What is the expected contribution of consumption to the revised GDP growth?

• Equal to investment

• Negligible

• Less than half

• More than half

How has China's COVID-19 policy impacted global inflation so far?

• Limited impact

• Decreased it

• No impact

• Significantly increased it

What recent improvements have been noted in China's supply chain activities?

• More foreign investments

• Higher retail sales

• Improved truck transport and port activities

• Increased air travel

What is the main domestic impact of China's COVID-19 policies?

• Reduced consumption

• Higher inflation

• Increased exports

• Improved GDP growth