Morgan Stanley: Longest Bear Market in Emerging Market Stocks Likely

The transcript discusses the Federal Reserve's rate projections and their impact on the US economy, highlighting a significant cut in growth projections and potential earnings issues. It examines the prolonged bear market in Asian and EM equities, noting high valuations and underperformance in sectors like semiconductors. The discussion also covers the relative performance of US and global markets, emphasizing Japan and China. Currency fluctuations, particularly the strong US dollar, pose challenges for central banks. The outlook for China's economy is uncertain, with geopolitical risks and COVID-19 policies in focus. Despite these challenges, some EM markets like Indonesia and Brazil show resilience.

What is the projected Fed funds rate for June 2024?

• 5%

• 6%

• 3%

• 4%

What is the bear case target for the Hang Seng index?

• 15,000

• 16,000

• 17,000

• 18,000

Which sector has shown significant underperformance in the current EM bear market?

• Healthcare

• Financials

• Consumer Goods

• Semiconductors

Which countries are considered late cycle plays in the current market?

• Taiwan and Japan

• India and Vietnam

• Indonesia and Singapore

• China and Korea

What is a major constraint on asset performance in the region according to the discussion?

• US dollar strength

• Political instability

• High inflation

• Trade tariffs

Which markets have shown resilience despite the strong US dollar?

• China and India

• Indonesia and Brazil

• South Korea and Japan

• Vietnam and Thailand

What is the expected impact of the US dollar's real effective exchange rate nearing a 30-year high?

• Decreased global liquidity

• Constrained global liquidity

• Increased global liquidity

• Stable global liquidity