Citi's Sheets Expects Recession in 2024, Rate Cut in Q2

The video discusses the current economic outlook, focusing on the potential for a recession or a soft landing in 2024. It highlights labor market trends, such as labor hoarding, and the implications for services spending and savings rates. The discussion also covers the impact of these scenarios on interest rates and inflation, noting that a soft landing could result in higher rates for longer, while a recession might lead to aggressive Fed rate cuts. The importance of monitoring monthly inflation prints is emphasized, with predictions of inflation moving sustainably into the 2-2.5% range.

What is the current economic narrative regarding labor hoarding and manufacturing?

• Labor hoarding is decreasing, and manufacturing is starting to give.

• Labor hoarding is stable, and manufacturing is increasing.

• Labor hoarding is increasing, and manufacturing is declining.

• Labor hoarding is decreasing, and manufacturing is stable.

What shift in economic predictions is mentioned for early 2024?

• From recession to soft landing

• From economic boom to recession

• From recession to economic boom

• From soft landing to recession

What is a key feature of a soft landing scenario?

• Lower interest rates for a shorter period

• Higher interest rates for a longer period

• Stable interest rates with no change

• Immediate rate cuts by the Federal Reserve

What condition could lead to more aggressive Fed rate cuts?

• An increase in manufacturing output

• A soft landing scenario

• A stable economy with no inflation

• A recession occurring

When is inflation expected to sustainably decrease to the 2-2.5% range?

• During the first quarter of a recession

• Before any economic downturn

• During a two-quarter recession

• After a soft landing