China Growth Target Hangs in Balance

Economist Changshu discusses market growth projections, noting a central projection above 5% and a GDP tracker indicating 5.3% growth in the third quarter. The probability of undershooting 5% has decreased. The property market is identified as a major risk, with weak sentiments and structural shifts affecting the economy. Despite strong summer tourism, other sectors like exports are not performing well. Long-term forecasts have been downgraded to 4.1% due to demographic issues, property drag, and geopolitical risks.

What is the central projection for market growth according to economist Changshu?

• Below 4%

• Above 5%

• Exactly 5%

• Between 4% and 5%

Which sector is identified as the biggest challenge to the economy?

• Exports

• Tourism

• Manufacturing

• Property market

What is the expected impact of the long holiday on the economy?

• Stronger than summer

• Weaker than summer

• No impact

• Equal to summer

What is the projected long-term growth rate for China over the next decade?

• 5.0%

• 6.0%

• 4.1%

• 3.5%

Which factors contribute to the downgraded long-term forecast?

• Technological advancements

• Improved trade relations

• Demographic issues and geopolitical risks

• Increased foreign investment