US 10-Year at 4% More of a Floor Than a Ceiling in 2023: Wells Fargo's Nelson

The video discusses the need for higher real yields to combat inflation, projecting a 10-year nominal yield of 4.25% to 4.75% in early 2023. It compares the current economic environment with 2018, highlighting aggressive central bank policies and quantitative tightening. The Fed is expected to raise rates to 5.25% in 2023, with no cuts anticipated. The discussion also covers the yield curve, emphasizing higher future rates due to supply shocks and structural inflation.

What is the expected range for the 10-year nominal yield through early 2023?

• 5.25% to 5.75%

• 2.25% to 2.75%

• 4.25% to 4.75%

• 3.25% to 3.75%

What is the Fed's projected rate increase for early next year?

• 5.25%

• 5.75%

• 4.75%

• 4.00%

Why does the Fed plan to maintain a tight policy throughout 2023?

• Weak labor market

• Low inflation

• Strong labor market

• High unemployment

What is the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates back to zero in the near future?

• Very high

• Moderate

• Very low

• Certain

What factors contribute to the expectation of higher future rates?

• Stable inflation

• Low structural inflation

• Persistent supply shocks and high structural inflation

• Decreasing supply shocks