Roubini Says Markets Too Complacent, Chance of Recession Over 25%

The transcript discusses the potential for a global recession, highlighting risks such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and supply shocks. It examines market complacency and the impact of negative interest rates, focusing on the shadow banking system and corporate debt. The conversation also explores the implications of deglobalization and the fragmentation of global supply chains.

What is one of the main factors contributing to the potential for a recession as discussed in the first section?

• Increase in global manufacturing

• Expansion of tradeable sectors

• Contraction in manufacturing

• Rise in CapEx investments

According to the second section, what is a significant risk that could affect the global economy?

• Increasing aggregate demand

• Decreasing oil prices

• A hard Brexit

• A stable geopolitical environment

What is a potential risk of accommodating permanent supply shocks?

• Decreased inflation

• Runaway fiscal deficits

• Increased potential growth

• Stability in fiscal policy

What is a key concern related to negative interest rates mentioned in the third section?

• Increased household savings

• Greater risk-taking in the shadow banking system

• Decreased corporate debt

• Stability in high yield spreads

What could be a consequence of a financial crisis in the shadow banking sector?

• Decrease in corporate defaults

• Stability in credit spreads

• Freezing of the markets

• Increased household debt

What major shift is discussed in the final section as a result of a US-China trade war?

• Deglobalization and Balkanization

• Increased globalization

• Unification of global economies

• Strengthening of global supply chains

What is a potential outcome of the Balkanization of global supply chains?

• Increased trade in goods and services

• Greater integration of economies

• Unrestricted flow of capital and labor

• Fragmentation of the global economy