The stock market could predict who's going to win the election

The video explores the relationship between stock market performance and presidential election outcomes. It highlights that historically, stocks have performed better under Democratic presidents compared to Republicans. The video discusses the limited influence presidents have on the economy and how economic conditions can sway voter behavior. It presents analyses showing that stock market performance, particularly the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices, can be reliable predictors of election results, although not infallible.

What has been the average stock market gain with a Democrat in the White House since 1953?

• 8%

• 9.5%

• 11%

• 6.5%

How does the wealth effect influence people's spending behavior?

• It has no impact on spending behavior.

• It makes people feel wealthier and more willing to spend.

• It causes people to spend less.

• It makes people save more.

According to the analysis, what is the chance of the incumbent party winning if the stock market performs well in an election year?

• Nearly 90%

• Less than 40%

• About 50%

• Nearly 70%

What percentage of the time has the S&P 500 accurately predicted the presidential election outcome in the last 24 elections?

• 50%

• 83%

• 60%

• 75%

What does a positive S&P 500 performance in the three months leading up to an election typically indicate?

• The incumbent party will lose.

• The stock market will crash.

• The election will be postponed.

• The incumbent party will stay in power.