Fed Is Fighting a Battle It Has Already Won: JPM's Kelly

The transcript discusses the potential decline in non-farm payrolls and the eventual cracking of the labor market, influenced by GDP momentum. It highlights disinflation trends in the US economy, with CPI expected to remain stable before decreasing in 2024. The Federal Reserve's continued tightening is seen as unnecessary, with potential negative impacts from rate cuts. The discussion emphasizes the need for aggressive rate cuts to address recession fears.

What is the expected trend for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the end of the year?

• It will rise to 4%

• It will increase to 5%

• It will remain around 3%

• It will fall to 1%

What is the main frustration with the Federal Reserve's current actions?

• They are tightening despite disinflation

• They are not addressing inflation

• They are focusing on the stock market

• They are cutting rates too quickly

What is a potential consequence of the Federal Reserve's initial rate cuts?

• It will worsen the economic situation

• It will lead to higher inflation

• It will stabilize the economy

• It will boost the housing market

Why might people hesitate to take out mortgages after an initial rate cut?

• They expect rates to rise again

• They are waiting for even lower rates

• They prefer renting over buying

• They are concerned about inflation

What is the Federal Reserve's miscalculation regarding rate cuts?

• They assume inflation will rise

• They expect immediate economic recovery

• They think gradual cuts will suffice

• They believe rates will stabilize quickly