Scenario Planning Process Worksheet

According to the scenario planning process, which characteristics are most important when selecting the two critical uncertainties that will form the axes of the scenario matrix?

• Low Uncertainty and High Impact

• High Uncertainty and High Impact

• High Uncertainty and Low Impact

• Low Uncertainty and Low Impact

When defining critical uncertainties in scenario planning, their potential future developments are typically framed as what?

• Predetermined outcomes.

• Single, most likely forecasts.

• Desired future states.

• Opposing, either/or outcomes.

In the scenario planning method described, selecting two critical uncertainties that are not too closely related is important for what reason?

• It makes gathering information easier.

• It helps produce distinct and diverse future scenarios.

• It simplifies the framing of the initial challenge.

• It ensures the scenarios are predictive.

In the post-COVID tourism study discussed, the two most powerful and unpredictable forces chosen to frame the future scenarios were:

• The role of large multinational businesses and the role of nation states.

• Consumer buying behaviors and climate change.

• The role of the public sector and large multinational businesses.

• The length and depth of the crisis and the moral dilemma of the citizen/consumer.

Combining the range of uncertainty for the two selected critical uncertainties into a cross or matrix directly leads to the identification of what?

• The key driving forces.

• The preferred future strategy.

• Monitoring signposts.

• The framework for four distinct alternative future scenarios.

Following the generation of the basic scenario outlines in the matrix, the next step involves adding depth, detail, and narrative to each. This subsequent step is called:

• Identifying Sign Posts

• Validating the scenarios

• Assessing Implications

• Fleshing them out and creating storylines

In the standard scenario planning structure resulting from combining the critical uncertainties, what does each of the four sections or quadrants represent?

• A specific strategic action plan.

• A predetermined trend shaping the future.

• A different group of stakeholders.

• A unique potential future scenario.

If a group developing scenarios finds it difficult to create clear, separate storylines for each quadrant, or if elements seem to blend between them, what issue might be indicated regarding the critical uncertainties chosen earlier?

• The critical uncertainties were too predictable.

• The critical uncertainties had low impact.

• The critical uncertainties might be too vague, not clearly binary, or too closely related.

• The time horizon was too short.

What is the primary goal or function of "fleshing out" the scenarios and creating "storylines" (Step 6) in Wade's scenario planning methodology?

• To prove the mathematical probability of each scenario occurring, allowing for a ranking of futures

• To eliminate the less plausible scenarios by highlighting their internal inconsistencies

• To add rich detail, narrative flow, and different perspectives to the basic scenario framework, making the potential future environments more vivid, understandable, and relatable for stakeholders

• To immediately develop a concrete action plan and specific strategic responses for each described future.

The tourism future framework developed during the COVID-19 outbreak is described as consisting of "explorative scenarios." According to this study, what is the primary characteristic of explorative scenarios?

• They pinpoint the single most likely future outcome for the industry.

• They are designed to show the preferred future that stakeholders should aim for.

• They focus strictly on predetermined trends with low uncertainty.

• They outline different probable and plausible future perspectives for the industry without predicting exactly what will happen.