FORECASTING

Which of the following is a technique used to determine forecasting accuracy?

• Exponential Smoothing

• Moving Average

• Regression

• Delphi Method

• Mean Absolute Percent Error

Which of the following methods gives an indication of the percentage of forecast error?

• MAD

• MSE

• MAPE

• Bias

The ​ (a)   the value of MAD relative to the magnitude of the data, the more accurate the forecast

• lower
• higher

​ (a)   is the average, absolute difference between the forecast and the demand.

• MAD
• MAPD
• MSE

​ (a)   -period moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ​ (b)   -period moving averages.

• longer
• shorter

As one increases the number of periods used in the calculation of a moving average, ​ (a)   emphasis is placed on more recent data.

• less
• more

Which of the following is not a component of a time series?

• Trend

• Seasonality

• Forecast Error

• Irregularity

Answer explanation

Forecast error is not a component of a time series. It is a measure of how accurately a forecast predicts the future values of a time series. The components of a time series are trend, seasonality, and irregularity.

What is the 2-month Simple Moving Average forecast for period 9, given the following time series data:

d

45

42.5

37.5

40

35

What is the 2-month moving average forecast for the next period given the following time series data:

150, 130, 170, 140, 180

• 140

• 156.67

• 160

• 180

What is the 3-month weighted moving average forecast for May with the following time series data with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2:

January 150

February 130

March 170

April 140

• 141

• 144

• 159

• 162