Concept 14: Probability (Lesson 1)

Concept 14: Probability (Lesson 1)

Learning Targets

• I can identify possible outcomes of an experiment.

• I can use probability and relative frequency to describe the likelihood of an event.

• I can use relative frequency to make predictions.

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Open Ended

For each spinner, determine which numbers you are more likely to spin and which numbers you are less likely to spin. Explain your reasoning.

Open Ended

Spin each spinner 20 times and record your results in two tables (data sheet provided). Do the data support your answers in part A (previous question? Explain why or why not.

Open Ended

How can you use percents to describe the likelihood of spinning each number? Explain.

The possible results of an experiment.

Example: The outcomes of flipping a coin are heads & tails.

Outcomes

An investigation or a procedure that has varying results.

Example: Rolling a number cube.

Experiment

Important Terms

The outcomes of a specific event.

Example: When rolling a number cube, the favorable outcomes for the event..."rolling an even number" are 2, 4, & 6.

Favorable Outcomes

A collection of one or more outcomes.

Example: Flipping heads on a coin.

Event

Important Terms

Match

Match the following:

• Experiment

• Outcomes

• Event

• Favorable Outcomes

An investigation or a procedure that has varying results.

The possible results of an experiment.

A collection of one or more outcomes.

The outcomes of a specific event.

• An investigation or a procedure that has varying results.

• The possible results of an experiment.

• A collection of one or more outcomes.

• The outcomes of a specific event.

• Experiment

• Outcomes

• Event

• Favorable Outcomes

• PROBLEM

• RESULTS

• DATA

• WANT

Match

Match the following:

• Experiment

• Outcomes

• Event

• Favorable Outcomes

PROBLEM

RESULTS

DATA

WANT

• PROBLEM

• RESULTS

• DATA

• WANT

The possible outcomes are spinning a 1, 2, 1, 3, 1, or 4. So, there are six possible outcomes.

You spin the spinner. How many possible outcomes are there?

The favorable outcomes of spinning an even number are 2 and 4.

What are the favorable outcomes of spinning an even number?

The possible outcomes of spinning a number less than 2 are 1, 1, and 1. So, spinning a number less than 2 can occur in 3 ways.

In how many ways can spinning a number less than 2 occur?

Fill in the Blank

You randomly choose one of the tiles shown from a hat. How many possible outcomes are there.

Multiple Choice

What are the favorable outcomes of choosing a vowel?

• A, E

• B, C, D

• A, E, A

• D, C, B, B, B

Fill in the Blank

In how many ways can choosing a consonant occur?

Probability

The measure or number that represents the likelihood that an event will occur.

​Probabilities are between 0 and 1, including 0 and 1. The diagram relates likelihoods (above the diagram) and probabilities (below the diagram).

​There is an 80% chance of rain, a 50% chance of thunderstorms, and a 15% chance of hail tomorrow. Describe the likelihood of each event.

There is rain tomorrow.

The probability of rain tomorrow is 80%. Because 80% is close to 75%, it is likely that there will be rain tomorrow.

There are thunderstorms tomorrow.

The probability of thunderstorms tomorrow is 50%. Because the probability is 50%, thunderstorms are equally likely to happen or not happen.

There is hail tomorrow.

The probability of hail tomorrow is 15%. Because 15% is between 0% and 25%, it is unlikely that there will be hail tomorrow.

Multiple Choice

Describe the likelihood of the event given its probability:

The probability that you land a jump on a snowboard is $$\frac{1}{10}$$  .

• Impossible

• Unlikely

• Equally likely to happen or not happen

• Likely

• Certain

Multiple Choice

Describe the likelihood of the event given its probability:

There is a 100% chance that the temperature will be less than 120°F tomorrow.

• Impossible

• Unlikely

• Equally likely to happen or not happen

• Likely

• Certain

Relative Frequency

When you conduct an experiment, the relative frequency of an event is the fraction or percent of the time that the event occurs.

Example: Relative Frequency

You flip a bottle and record the number of times it lands upright and the number of times it lands on its side. Describe the likelihood that the bottle lands upright on your next flip.

​Let's try this out with some 3-Point Baskets...