Predicting Natural Hazards

Predicting Natural Hazards

By Ely Mendez

Students will be able to analyze data on natural hazards to forecast the likelihood of future events.

OBJECTIVE

Open Ended

What is a Natural Hazard?

Multiple Choice

Which is NOT a natural hazard?

• Wildfire

• Earthquake

• Tornado

• House fire

If the sky is full of dark clouds, you might predict that rain is about to fall. Making predictions is an important part of science. Natural hazard predictions can prevent natural disasters because warnings can be issued to help people prepare. 

Multiple Select

People living near this stream think that if heavy rains continue, the stream will overflow and flood their homes. What information might these people be using to make this prediction? Select all that apply.

• a weather forecast

• the current height of the stream

• the height of the stream when it flooded in the past

• the rate and duration of rainfall that caused flooding in the past

All of these types of information could help someone make a prediction about flooding.

the current height of the stream

a weather forecast

the height of the stream when it flooded in the past

the rate and duration of rainfall that caused flooding in the past

Natural Hazard Prediction​

Natural hazard predictions are efforts to forecast the occurrence, intensity, and effects of natural hazards.

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Some natural hazards are not predictable.

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If precursor events or patterns can be detected far enough in advance, a prediction may be made. For example, a precursor event to a flood may be heavy rainfall over a short period of time.

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Natural hazard predictions can help people reduce the effects of a natural hazard or even prevent some natural disasters.

Multiple Choice

Which data is most helpful in predicting volcanic activity?

• sea surface temperatures and wind speed

• historic information about landslides and flooding

• satellite data about atmospheric conditions

• frequency of earthquakes and stability of land surface

Multiple Choice

Fill in the blanks with the appropriate terms: If ______ ______ or patterns can be detected far enough in advance, a _______ may be made.

• scientific instruments, understanding

• precursor events, prediction

• volcanic eruptions, understanding

Multiple Choice

Fill in the blanks with the appropriate terms: Natural hazard predictions can help people _____ ___ ____of a natural hazard or even prevent some natural disasters.

• increase the effects

• Do nothing worthwhile

• reduce the effects

Natural Hazard Prediction​

Natural hazard predictions involve some uncertainty. Uncertainties can include a hazard’s exact location, timing, magnitude, and whether it will actually happen.

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Natural hazard predictions are improved by gaining a scientific understanding of hazards, collecting and analyzing data, and using monitoring technology.

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Advances in science and technology can help improve natural hazard predictions.

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These advances can help us prepare for the effects of natural hazards.

Multiple Choice

A scientist wants to track a hurricane and predict where it will go next. Which tools are best for making preditions about hurricanes?

• thermometers and GPS

• geologic maps and tiltmeters

• satellites and computer models

• weather ballons and seismometers

Multiple Choice

The data can be mapped to discover patterns in the locations of tsunamis. _____________ data come from instruments designed to detect earthquakes or eruptions that might lead to a tsunami.

• monitoring

• historical

Scientific Understanding

A natural hazard prediction can be improved by gaining scientific understanding of a natural hazard.

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To gain scientific understanding, you can start by asking questions that can be answered by using scientific methods.

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For example, if you wanted to understand more about avalanches, you might ask: On which slopes are avalanches most common? What weather conditions are related to avalanches? What types of snow are related to avalanches? To answer these kinds of questions, you can collect and analyze data, use models, or conduct experiments. These practices help scientists better understand natural hazards.

Multiple Choice

A scientist used a model to predict the path of a hurricane. The hurricane followed a similar path but did not follow the exact path that was predicted. How does this example demonstrate a limitation of models?

• Models cannot be used to predict things

• Models cannot account for how every factor may suddenly change

• Models can be used to predict weather events before the event occurs

• Models can be used to show only physical structures, not events such as hurricanes

Multiple Choice

A town is deciding where to build a new road. There have been landslides in this town in the past. Which information will help the engineers decide where to put the road to avoid damage due to landslides?

• the number of houses in different areas

• the steepness of the gorund in different areas

• weather predictions about amount of rainfall in different states

• the number of cars expected to use the road at different times of the day

Historical Data

Historical data are used to evaluate the likelihood that a natural hazard will happen in a given place.

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Historical data can include the locations of past events as well as their frequency, magnitude, and effects on the environment or people.

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Some hazards, such as volcanic eruptions, landslides, and earthquakes, tend to occur in specific areas. However, these hazards can happen at any time of the year.

Multiple Choice

The map shows the epicenters of some major earthquakes in 2003. Based on this information, on which continent is an earthquake least likely to happen in the future?

• Asia

• Africa

• South America

• North America

Multiple Choice

The diagram shows how layers of information can be combined to create one map. Based on the layers present on the map, what could this map best be used for?

• to study the effect erosion has had on the path of the river

• to measure the distance from the town library to the school

• to compare the elevation of one town with the elevation of another town

• to determine which areas and streets would be most at risk for flooding

Multiple Choice

Analyzing tsunami data helps to understand the causes and effects of tsunamis. It also helps to determine where future tsunamis are likely to occur. ______________ data are compiled from past tsunamis.

• monitoring

• historical

Data from Monitoring

Scientists use technology to monitor conditions that relate to the occurrence of natural hazards. For example, satellites orbit Earth and collect weather data. These data go into computer models that help scientists predict weather-related hazards.

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For hazards that are likely to occur in specific locations, monitoring technology may be designed for and placed in those areas. For example, underwater earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions can be precursor events to tsunamis.

Data from Monitoring

So, scientists monitor ocean water movement after those events in order to predict tsunamis. Tsunami sensors might be put on buoys or on the sea floor to detect water movement in areas at high risk of tsunamis.

Multiple Choice

The weather has been warmer than usual in a town in California. A student wants to know if warmer weather means that an earthquake is more likely to happen. Which statement about earthquakes and weather is true?

• Earthquakes and weather are not related.

• Earthquakes cannot happen in cold weather.

• Atmospheric conditions cause both earthquakes and weather.

• The movement of tectonic plates causes both earthquakes and weather.

Multiple Select

Monitoring weather conditions could help scientists make predictions about which of the following hazards? Select three (3).

• volcanic eruptions

• tornadoes

• floods

• hurricanes

• tsunamis

Multiple Select

Monitoring geologic conditions could help scientists make predictions about which of the following hazards? Select three (2).

• volcanic eruptions

• tornadoes

• floods

• hurricanes

• tsunamis

Multiple Select

Which weather conditions help scientists predict the likelihood of a snow avalanche? select all that apply

• The temperature rises a few degrees over several days.

• A snowstorm results in 16 inches of snow in 24 hours.

• Temperatures have remained steady and no snow melt has been observed.

• Strong winds have been blowing in the same direction over several days.

Explanation Slide...

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