Demographic Transition Model

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What is the Demographic Transition Model (DTM)?

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The DTM is based on historical population trends of birth rate and death rate, suggesting that a country’s total population growth rate cycles through stages as it develops economically.

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What characterizes each stage of the Demographic Transition Model?

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Each stage is characterized by a specific relationship between birth rate and death rate, affecting a country’s total population.

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What happens in Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model?

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In Stage 1, both birth rates and death rates are high, resulting in a fairly constant population size with major swings due to events like wars or pandemics.

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What changes occur in Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model?

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Stage 2 sees a decline in death rates due to modern medicine, while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth.

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What defines Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model?

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In Stage 3, birth rates gradually decrease due to improved economic conditions, increased women's status, and access to contraception, resulting in continued but slower population growth.

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What is the situation in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model?

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Stage 4 is characterized by low birth and death rates, stabilizing the population, with strong economies, higher education levels, better healthcare, and a fertility rate around two children per woman.

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What is the potential Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model?

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Stage 5 may include countries where fertility rates fall below replacement level, and the elderly population exceeds the youthful population.

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What are the limitations of the Demographic Transition Model?

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The DTM does not account for variables like migration, nor does it predict the duration a country will remain in each stage.